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Neither of these teams has been particularly consistent this season, but we will take the points here in this in-state rivalry.
Oregon is coming off of back-to-back losses to fall to 7-4, but the Ducks season effectively ended with the loss at USC two weeks ago, so their home upset loss to Arizona in a huge letdown spot last week was actually not that surprising. Just about the only thing that could salvage the season for the Ducks now is a nice win vs. their biggest rival, and they certainly have the talent to handle the Beavers with their best effort.
The Beavers have won five of their last six games after a 2-3 start, but their defense has allowed huge chunks of yards. Oregon State is allowing 310.7 total yards per game here in its own stadium, and that could prove fatal here vs. an Oregon offense that is averaging 31.5 points on an impressive 437.3 total yards per game.
Saturday November 25th 2006
-- College Football --
Kansas r345 +7.0 *OPINION*
The Jayhawks actually held on to a second half lead for once last week, and knocked off the Wildcats for the second straight time at home. That’s a very encouraging sign heading into this week’s rivalry battle with the Mizzou Tigers.
Speaking of those Tigers, where have they gone? They looked to be a major player in the Big 12 North in early October sitting with an unblemished mark of 6-0, but their tough loss in College Station propelled them towards a downward spiral that’s seen them win just one of their last four games. Last weeks loss to a very poor Iowa State club is inexcusable. Granted, it was HC McCarney’s last game as the “BMOC”, but they were installed as 2 TD road chalks and lost SU!!! Pathetic to say the least.
KU is a very gritty club that should come into this game with a couple more wins than the six their record states they’ve earned. The Border War has seen Rock Chalk Jayhawk pummel the Tigers by double digits for three straight seasons. The dog has also cashed in 8 of the L/11 times these clubs have locked horns. As bad as both clubs have played in spurts this season, I see no choice but to grab as many points as you can in this one. Both offenses should have field days against both stop units, and this game will be won due to special teams play or a crucial turnover. KU is very prone to coughing it up at the worst of times, so the seven points should be enough of a blanket to keep us within reach the whole game through.
Even though Kansas became bowl eligible last week, a seventh win would surely cement the fact that they’ve reached the second season in back-to-back years. I feel they’re on the cusp of getting selected right now, and could be passed over for a bigger program with the same type of record. Expect a solid effort from the “Fighting Mangino’s” this afternoon as they look to take it to Mizzou for the fourth straight year!!!!
East Carolina r341 +2.5 (-110) *OPINION*
These teams are on the opposite ends of the ATS spectrum this year, as East Carolina is a sparkling 9-2 ATS while NC State is only 3-7 against the number.
Not only that, but the Pirates are a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records, as well as a scintillating 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall. East Carolina has already beaten one ACC team this season in Virginia back at home, but this would be an even bigger boost to the program, as the Pirates would love to knock off an ACC school on the road.
On the other hand the Wolfpack will probably have a difficult time getting motivated for this non-conference tilt, as they just want to call it a year after a very disappointing 3-8 season. The Pack is currently on a six-game losing streak, which does not exactly ooze confidence when giving points. They have been done in by their inability to run the ball, especially here at home where NC State averages just 3.4 yards per rush. We will go with the more motivated Pirates to spring the mild upset here.
USC r384 -7.0 *OPINION*
The USC Trojans enter into this game against long time rivals the Notre Dame Fighting Irish off their biggest conference game of the year last Saturday against California in the Coliseum winning by 23-9 count, thanks to their great defense and the coaching of Bill Carroll. The big question is now can the Trojans keep the adrenalin flowing for two consecutive weeks, as the Irish enter into this game with upset on their minds. Im saying yes they can against a Notre Dame team that is vastly over rated in my opinion and getting to much mileage out of future NFL QB Brady Quinn. Final notes & Trends: Notre Dame (the Irish) are 18-29 SU and 17-30 ATS versus opposition with a .800 win % or better. USC are 33-0 SU L/33 and 23-10 ATS at home. Inside that number the Trojans are: 14-4 ATS off a SU and ATS win.17-4 ATS off a double-digit win.. Projected score: USC 31 Notre Dame 21
Memphis r385 +11.5 (-110) *OPINION*
Yes Memphis is a bad 1-10 on the year, but UTEP is simply struggling too much right now to be giving double-digits to anyone.
The Miners have now lost four of their last five games straight up, including a home loss to Rice in this double-digit favorite role. UTEP has become a totally one-dimensional passing team this season, as the Miners are averaging a pathetic 64.7 rushing yards per game on just 2.6 yards per carry. Throw in the fact that the defense has allowed 34.3 points and 408.3 total yards per game over the last three contests, and UTEP looks like an extremely vulnerable favorite here.
Now granted Memphis has not beaten a Division I-A school all season as its lone win came over Division I-AA Tennessee Chattanooga. However the Tigers have been knocking on the door lately, covering their last two games while losing to Central Florida and Houston by just two and three points respectively. Quarterback Martin Hankins has had some fine moments this year while throwing 18 touchdown passes, and he could take advantage of this UTEP secondary enough to keep Memphis in this game until the very end.
Hawaii r390 -16.0 *OPINION*
Purdue enters into this non conference tilt against Hawaii off winning their Big 10 finale last time out against Indiana at home in unconvincing fashion by a score of 28-19. Now they travel to paradise Island , with little left to play for, as they take on the high flying take no prisoners offense of June Jones Hawaii Warriors. The Warriors have bombed opponents for an average of 51.7 PPG as a host this season, outscoring them by an average of 35 PPG. Look for the Golden Warriors famous pre game hospitality to lull another unmotivated opponent to sleep, before leading them to the proverbial slaughter on the playing field. Final Notes & Trends. Hawaii 12-3 ATS L/15 as home favorites. Projected score: Hawaii 48 Purdue 21
Sunday November 26th 2006
-- National Football League --
New Orleans Saints r411 Atlanta Falcons r412 o47.0 *OPINION*
Atlanta and New Orleans prepare to renew their rivalry this week in a contest that features two teams with explosive offenses and porous defenses. I know the Falcons QB Micheal Vick and his offense have struggled of late,but look for them to get on track against a Saints team that has allowed 27.7 PPG in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. I also expect sure armed pivot Drew Brees and a Bayou crew, that has pounded opponents all season, to unload on an Atlanta D that has allowed an average 333 YPG in their L/3 overall and 23.7 PPG. Look for and expect a run and gun all out take no prisoners battle. Final notes & Trends: Over is 8-2-1 in Falcons last 11 home games. Saints have gone over in 5 of their L/6 overall. Play Over
The Jacksonville defense has been suffocating over the last four weeks while the UNDER is now 7-3 in all Buffalo games this season, so we are looking for another low scoring affair here.
The Jaguars have allowed a total of 36 points in their last four games, and they have held four of their last six opponents to 10 points or less. At the same time their offense has sputtered a bit when leaving the friendly confines of home, as Jacksonville is averaging just 16.0 points per game on the road. Also the UNDER is now 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams, and we see no reason why this week will be any different.
The Bills have scored more than 20 points just twice in 10 games this season, and those came against a couple of poor defenses (Green Bay, Houston). Young J.P. Losman has been very erratic at quarterback, so we do not expect him to duplicate his fine outing of a week ago when he torched the Houston secondary. Finally, it certainly does not help the Buffalo offense that running back Willis McGahee is suffering with three broken ribs.
Carolina Panthers r413 Washington Redskins r414 u36.0 (-110) *OPINION*
The Redskins have put up some nice point totals at home this season, but this is now a depleted team going up against a quality defense.
Washington running back Clinton Portis is out for the year, and the Skins are now taking a look at Jason Campbell at quarterback. Campbell has completed just 52.9 percent of his passes so far while averaging only 5.48 yards per pass attempt, and we do not foresee much improvement this week vs. a fine Carolina pass defense that is allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt.
The Panthers are coming off of a 15-0 shutout of St. Louis after allowing just 10 points in their previous game vs. Tampa Bay. At the same time Carolina has not exactly lit things up offensively, averaging a rather pedestrian 17.6 points per game. Thus it is not surprising that the UNDER is now 7-3 in all Panthers games this season.
Chicago Bears r415 +3.0 *OPINION*
It certainly wasn’t pretty last week, but the Bears got the job done right back at the scene of the crime where they embarrassed the Giants the week before. Sure, Grossman looked sketchy once again and the defense needed an endzone pick to keep the Jets off the scoreboard, but the best team in the NFC won again and that’s exactly what they’re going to do again this week against Brady and the Pats.
I’m well aware of NE’s dominance of the NFC of late, (something like 33-5 SU L/38 games or so), but the Bears a re a completely different animal than what they’ve seen this far this season from the other conference. Green Bay is about as piss poor a team as you’ll find in the NFL, and their dismantling of Minnesota on MNF a few weeks back was more an anomaly than reality.
The Bears will be able to move the ball on NE’s defense like they’ve done all season long, and Brady will have his hands full trying to avoid Chicago’s frenetic defensive attack. All you ever hear is people stating that the Bears aren’t for real. They’re a fraud!!! Well, if they win this week that will be three impressive road wins in a row. Just face it people, the Bears are for real and will be a major player in deciding who wins the Lombardi Trophy this season. They’ll shut down Maroney and Dillon on the ground, and force Brady to beat them. It can be done, I know, but Tom Tom hasn’t looked to good overall this season. A decent but not great Indy club picked him off a number of times in their game earlier this season. How many TO’s do u think the Bears will suck up this week considering their one of the league leaders in TO margin this season.
Grab the points, and play em on the moneyline. Not even the new field turf will stop the Monsters of the Midway from pounding the Pats once again en route to the SB.
of the Month
"The game of life
is a lot like football. You have to tackle your problems,
block your fears, and score your points when you get the